Thursday, May 25, 2017

USGS


California's coast is going to experience Low to Very High coastal vulnerability in terms of sea level rise. California's coasts are experiencing coastal erosion and will be more vulnerable to rising sea levels. The current governor of California created a team to assess the best actions to take in order to mitigate this imminent hazard. Both soft and hard stabilization will likely be implemented where needed. It is important to take measures to minimize the negative effects hard stabilization comes with such as erosion of the beaches down drift the jettie or breakwater. Monterey Bay itself will experience low coastal vulnerability and I think that could be due to the preserve on its coast and into Big Sur. Lack of development on the coasts can slow down the imminent threat of sea levels rising. Though measures should still be taken to prepare for 100-year floods and possible storm surges that can occur along the coast.

Sources:
https://marine.usgs.gov/coastalchangehazardsportal/

Natural Hazards By Keller & Devecchio

https://www.wired.com/2017/02/think-states-alone-cant-handle-sea-level-rise-watch-california/

Wildfires and Droughts

Iceland doesn't experience drought or wildfires. They have plenty of access to fresh water and officials have even considered capitalizing on that as the projected supply available in the world is going to decrease.

I looked at the DW.com site concerning increased wildfires throughout the world. I found it interesting that Iceland, Greenland, Asia and smaller portions of land on each continent would not deal with this issue. Some areas are projected to actually have a decrease in wildfires because of increasing drought. It leaves much in question as so few areas will have less occurrences of wildfires and less access to fresh water. This will lead to great tensions over the natural resources of agricultural land and access to water.




Sources:
http://www.invest.is/files/skjol/pdff/natural_hazards_extract.pdf

http://www.dw.com/en/climate-change-fuels-wildfires-around-the-world/a-16518572


TEDx on Climate Change

The most surprising fact was that people will still survive this. I don't think the human population will be nearly as large as it is now. Rising sea levels take away large areas of land needed for agriculture and domesticated animals such as cows, horses, sheep, etc. The rise in temperature is already leading to diseases and parasites and bugs spreading to areas in which they didn't exist before. The quality of life is sure to go down and likely the average life-span, as well. It is wholly unnerving and the extreme cold period and warm period will be very harsh for people to endure. I'm worried these circumstances are setting the stage for mass extinction as proven in the past to happen along with climate change. Decreasing biodiversity will harm life in the ocean and on land, in turn, harming humanity, as well. Fossil fuels are not worth these catastrophic consequences lasting thousands of years.

Climate Change

Rising sea level are of great concern to Icelandic officials. Storm surges are becoming an ever increasing problem and climate change worsens this natural hazard. A rise of 5.5 meters in sea level was recorded between 1997 and 2007 in Reykjavik. Due do one of Europe's largest ice caps Vatnajokull melting, it reduces the load experienced on the island and has actually caused the south coast to uplift. This provides Iceland a natural protection from rising sea levels. The more urban south west portion of the island did not experience this uplift and subsidence is heavily occurring in that area. Therefore, being more prone to storm surges when winter cyclones hit the island most often.

The capital, Reykjavik, rose up from the ocean by 3.4 m per year. Most of the Icelandic population resides on the coasts and sea level rise is of huge concern. Current assessments are being conducted to minimize damage done to property, infrastructure, and harbors. This assessment will likely reveal costly measures as the likelihood of moving and/or rebuilding infrastructure further inland is likely.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently projected that sea levels will rise between +2.6 - .4mm per year and  +2.9- .4 mm per year.

Recently updated satellite data is proving the IPCC sea level projections to be correct and actually on the higher end of their projections. Whether this will take place in decades or longer-term is not yet clear. It is being alarmingly witnessed that sea level rise is accelerating due to Greenland and Antarctica losing mass. It is something island nation's like Iceland are watching closely and actively assessing how to successful mitigate this natural hazard.

Storm Surge in Iceland

Sources:
https://www.climatechangepost.com/iceland/coastal-floods/

Natural Hazards by Keller & Devecchio

Photo taken from https://www.shutterstock.com/video/clip-8276929-stock-footage-light-house-storm-surge-waves-crashing-grotta-iceland.html
In Reykjavik, Iceland

Coastal Hazard

Erosion occurs on all of Iceland's coasts. This is often because of glacial melting but is also due to some areas of Iceland's coast being lower in sea level than others. Some of these areas are archaeological sites with artifacts dating  back to the age of Vikings and medieval era. The extent to which coastal erosion is a problem is unknown. Most studies are centered around the soil erosion experienced in Iceland but steps are being taken to handle this issue and the coastal erosion. In places like Önundarfjörður bay in the Westfjords of Iceland to areas like the Snæfellsnes peninsula, archaeological sites along the shores of Iceland are being quickly eroded away. 
A preliminary study found most of Iceland's coast to be tolerable while much of the south west coast experienced the most severe erosion. This is due to glacial melting. The Breiðamerkursandur shoreline's rate of erosion measured are 4.5 m of coastline per year in 2004.  A proposed plan to once again place 'armour stone' along the coast and divert a road way farther from the coast has been recommended in order to reduce erosion. It is a costly expense at about 1.7 million USD.

Armour stone is pictured beneath the graph showing soil erosion throughout Iceland and it's coasts.





Rip currents along Iceland's coast have lead to many fatalities. In the case of the famous tourist spot  Reynisfjara beach, people are often warned to stay away from the water's edge. Warnings aren't always heeded, most notably by tourists, and are either rescued or die as a result. The Iceland Association for Search and Rescue (ICE-SAR) and the South Iceland Police conclude that extra security measures must be taken in order to safe guard people on this beach and others. This has yet to be completely sorted out and for the time being, ICE-SAR is still often called out to rescue those who get caught in rip currents when getting too close to the water's edge. 

 Sources:
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Shores_of_Akranes.jpg
http://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/nature_and_travel/2016/02/09/reynisfjara_to_get_extra_safety_supervision/
http://icelandmag.visir.is/article/invaluable-treasures-being-washed-sea-erosion-threatens-archaeological-sites
http://www.vegagerdin.is/vefur2.nsf/Files/2005_strandrof_strandvarnir_Breidamerkurs/$file/Coastal%20erosion%20and%20coastal%20protection%20near%20the%20bridge%20across%20J%C3%B6kuls%C3%A1%20river,%20Brei%C3%B0amerkursandur,%20Iceland.pdf

http://www.rala.is/desert/4-1.html
https://hmdecozine.com/2014/01/21/iceland/


Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Cyclones

Intense storms frequently occur near Iceland in the winter season. One particular year, in 2015, Iceland experienced hurricane force winds so high that such an intense storm occurs every 10-20 years. The Icelandic MET office issued a weather warning Monday December 7, 2015 to warn citizens of the impending storm and its magnitude. Forecaster Elin Bjork Jonasdottir warned the public that the storm would begin with heavy slow fall causing little to no visibility. In the late evening, warmer conditions would lead to sleet or rainfall until Wednesday that week. Forecasters predicted that this storm will be far more severe than storms previously experienced. In an article by Eric Chaney, he described this cyclone to be the worst experienced by Iceland in 25 years. The East Iceland Hallormsstadahls recorded winds of 160 mph. Sustained maximum wind-speeds of 60 mph were also recorded. Icelandic authorities gave notice to the public before the storm system hit and even upped the threat level to “hazard."

 700 rescue workers worked on approx. 350 calls during this storm. Effective emergency crews were on stand by to help people in need during this record storm in Iceland. There were no reports of any severe injuries and attributed this to the public heeding the warnings given by the authorities. Property damage was experienced with roofing becoming loose and even flying into a neighbor’s yard. Two boats in Reykjavik sank in the harbor and all domestic flights were grounded. There were many road closures due to the continuing hazardous conditions. 
With a storm of this magnitude the lack of injury or fatalities was due to authorities having enough time to warn the public. 



Sources: 
weather.com Iceland's Worst Storm in 25 Years Causes Property Damage But No Injuries by Eric Chaney

en.vedur.is Icelandic Met Office Weather Warning-hurricane force winds 7 Dec.

Photo from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icelandic_Low

Lightning Strikes in the U.S

Lightning occurs within many different natural hazards. Within thunderstorms usually strike from cloud to cloud. There are many times, however, when lightning does strike the ground. Lightning only occurs within cumulonimbus clouds in this instance. It can also occur within volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, and extreme forest fires. There is a human induced instance of lightning caused by surface nuclear detonations. Lightning occurs when opposite charges within a cloud or opposite charges in the cloud and the ground. The negative electrons are attracted to the positive electrons. This process takes place when a stepped leader (negative electrons) move downward closer to the ground, while the streamers (positively charged electrons) move upward and emanate from a tall object such as a tree. This is when cloud to ground lightning occurs. It is highly dangerous as it can cause fires and human fatalities, though some people have survived lightning strike, more often than not they are left with devastating chronic health issues. Thunder occurs with lightning as the lightning rapidly heats the air around it, causing it to expand and create the sound wave we know as thunder. Lightning can heat the air around it to about 54,000 degrees Fahrenheit.


It is important to know that lightning strikes tall objects. People should know that if they are in a field and there are no tall objects around, it is best to lay down if escape from the hazard zone is not possible. Avoid being to tallest object in the presence of lightning to avoid being struck. Also, not wearing or holding a good conductor, such as metals, is important to know. Having rubber soled shoes also helps, in the event a person is truck, channel the lightning into the ground and increases the possibility of surviving a lightning strike. The best preventative measure to take is to stay indoors during any type of storm or if large cumulonimbus clouds are on the horizon.  Lightning related fatalities have decreased in the U.S since people from rural areas are not dwelling in cities. The Gulf Coast in the U.S experiences the greatest number of lightning strikes with Central Florida being the primary area this occurs. 


Photo by Trevor Pitts

Sources: Natural Disasters by Keller & Devecchio
nssl.noaa.gov
geology.com World Lightning Map

Monday, May 22, 2017

Iceland's Most Dangerous Natural Hazards

Through this semester’s evaluation of natural hazards occurring in Iceland, I have deemed the two most dangerous ones to be volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Iceland is split in two by the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. This ridge separates the North American and Eurasian Plates. The movement on this particular ridge is divergent and causes both plates to move in opposite directions of the each other. It could best be described as Iceland slowly being stretched in two directions, allowing for the opening caused by this stretching to create volcanoes and bring magma to the surface. The rift created in Iceland is known as Thingvellir Rift Valley, also a national park and popular tourist destination. As a result, Iceland is one of the most geologically active places on Earth.

 Coupled with both the Eurasian and North American plates divergent boundaries also come intense seismicity in the form of earthquakes. Strike-slip faults are present in Iceland which cause shearing stress as both plates glide past each other. An example of how both of these natural hazards occur in tandem is highlighted during the 2014 eruption of Bárðarbunga volcano. Approx 30,000 earthquakes were experienced before it finally erupted August 29th. It was identified by scientists that a left-lateral strike-slip fault ran parallel to this volcano. Seismicity coincides with volcanic eruptions as they each have an effect on the other. According to the International Disasters Database in Belgium, the average financial loss experienced annually by Iceland due to earthquakes is 31.3 million dollars (US). This is a substantial economic cost given that Iceland’s permanent population is a little over 334, 000 people. Of that population approx.. 85,000 people live within 30 km (18.6 miles) of a volcano with only 27 living 30 km distance from a volcano. 

Iceland has a total of 30 volcanoes, with its most recent eruption having occurred in April 2010 when the stratovolcano, Eyjafjallajökull, erupted. It created an enormous cloud of ash that halted air traffic from Europe for five days, with the eruption itself continuing until October that year. Iceland experiences volcanic eruptions once every 3-4 years and are generally effusive. Effusive eruptions are composed of low-volatile basaltic magma and are slow moving due to its low-viscosity. This means the magma is comprised of greater amounts of silica which results in a more restricted movement of magma. These types of effusive eruptions result in slower-paced lava flows and are not explosive, though due to Eyjafjallajökull being a stratovolcano, an explosive eruption is possible. A type of volcano that is commonly found in Iceland is shield volcanoes. This type of volcano, like Bárðarbunga, does not tend to form an explosive crater but instead, a caldera is formed.

It is clear these two hazards are capable of causing great disruption to, not only the island-nation itself, but Europe as well. Its effects are far-reaching and with the recent eruption in 2010, scientists from Europe are working closely with Icelandic geophysicists in order to better predict eruptions in the future and how to communicate the magnitude of such eruptions more effectively to each other. More disconcerting is the impending eruption of Katla. Expected to melt the ice above it causing glacial flooding (jökulhlaup). It is predicted to be an eruption of great magnitude and is under 24/7 monitoring by geophysicists.

Because of this impending threat, I would target the hazard zone Rangávallasýsla. This is the region adjacent to Mýrdalsjökull and Eyafyallajökull glaciers and Katla. There are approx. 1,200 residents in this region.

Measures I would take to effectively address these hazards would be to continue 24/7 monitoring of volcanic activity and seismicity experienced in Iceland. Geophysicists collaborate with European scientists to effectively study these two hazards that pose the greatest threat on the island. The following tools would be used:

-          Geodetic GPS receivers mounted to rocks throughout the island with careful placement closer to the greatest volcanic activity on the island. This measures Earth's geometric shape, orientation in space, and gravity field. This effectively allows scientists to monitor the movement of a volcanic site and what it is doing 24/7.
-          Place sensors that measure seismicity that will measure the waves generated before, during, and after a volcanic eruption.
-          Scientists will bore holes into the sides of volcanoes that house strain monitors. This allows scientists to determine if the Earth's crust is being crushed or expanded, another indication of an eruption.
-          Make sure reinforced safety centers are well-stocked with necessities (food, water, medicine etc.) and easily accessible but still in safe, elevated (above sea-level) locations.
-          Finally, they will run constant radar measurements that measure the airborne particles released into the atmosphere preceding an eruption. This also helps predict the rate at which the erupting volcano will release ash and other material into the air.

Most importantly, is educating the public of the immediate natural hazards in their region. Practice evacuation routes and educate the public on past volcanic events and the anticipated future eruptions.
To build my home (and advise others to do the same), I would choose a section of land that is not under direct threat of a jökulhlaup (glacial flood) which occurs with volcanic eruptions along with magma flow and ash. This would be high ground near or on a mountain peak or just above the low-lands (in order to farm). Reinforcing the home with concrete and steel bars are a sure way to protect my home from the effects of earthquakes experienced regularly in Iceland. I would likely live in Skorradalsreppur. The terrain in this town is more mountainous and isn’t too close to any volcanoes. This would mean less intense seismicity and less natural hazards resulting from volcanic eruptions. It’s important to stay close to where most of the population resides for safety purposes and the greatest concentration of people reside in Reykjavik. I would encourage those living in the hazard zone of Katla to move to my area. I would build yet another evacuation center in our area to ensure the safety of everyone.

Photo of Iceland's famous Seljalandfoss waterfall. 

References
Photo from: https://www.demilked.com/nordic-landscape-nature-photography-iceland/
Natural Hazards by Keller & DeVecchio

Thursday, May 11, 2017

Subsidence/ Sinkholes

Subsidence is of great concern for volcanologists due to Iceland's unique landscape. The frequent volcanic activity of Iceland results in the island's issue of subsidence. Earthquakes also contribute to this. The risks of the subsidence being experienced on the island at the Bárðarbunga caldera. This is centrally located in what is known as the Holuhraun lava field. 
According to volcanologist Haraldur Sigurdsson, "the subsidence in the center of the Bárðarbunga caldera is an exponential function that will gradually slow down relieving the pressure in the volcanic system that supplies magma to the Holuhraun eruption," (Sigurdsson, Iceland Magazine). 

Fortunately, his prediction appeared to be correct as the eruption appears to be coming to an end as the pressure in the magma chamber is coming to a balance in this caldera. 
According to our text, "Subsidence can also occur from volcanic activity, related to either the central magma chamber of the volcano or shallow tunnels on the flank of the volcano. As magma moves upward into underground chambers below a volcano, the surface of the volcano may be forced upward. When it erupts, the volume of magma in the underground chamber is reduced and the land initially uplifted by the magma will subside," (Devecchio, Keller, p. 265). 

Bárðarbunga Caldera is beneath 600-850 meters of ice known as Vatnajökull glacier. The flow of lava can sometimes leave a void when the lava drains from what's known as the "lava tube" making it susceptible to collapse. Both are risks for Iceland. 
The depression in the ice above the Bárðarbunga caldera is the largest in Iceland recorded at more than 55 meters (180 ft.). Subsidence is occurring in other areas of this glacier as well so this occurance is not isolated to this caldera alone. 

Iceland tailors its escape routes and safety shelters (oftentimes schoolhouses, or reinforced community buildings) to adequately support the communities in the immediate surroundings of the natural hazard. In the case of the Bárðarbunga Caldera, the Vatnajökull glacier atop it creates the risk for dangerous flash flooding in the event the volcano wee to erupt. Levees have been placed around the town to mitigate this event to divert birth water and lava flow away from nearby communities.  Volcanologists monitor these natural hazards 24/7 and have the oublic practice evacuation routes. The public is also educated on the risks and dangers of these natural hazards. Measures are also being assessed to protect coastal towns from erosion (subsidence) and rising sea levels. The melting of the Vatnajökull glacier greatly contributes to this, as does global warming. Actions to be taken to mitigate these natural hazards are currently being assessed.



HOLUHRAUN LAVA FIELD The eruption in the central highlands began on August 31st 2014. Photo/Institute of Earth Sciences







Sources: http://icelandmag.visir.is/tags/subsidence

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/9/6/1327748/-B-r-arbunga-The-Greatest-Subsidence-Ever-Monitored-In-Iceland


Natural Hazards by Devecchio & Keller